Lee County Alabama Local Community information, Real Estate information, Tips and Tricks, Listings and More.
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Friday, June 20, 2014
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Home Safety Tips! Make Sure Your Protected!
A quick once-over of the items on this list may improve the safety and security of your home and could protect your family and friends. It is important to periodically pay attention to these things because things change over time.
Security
- Does each exterior door have a deadbolt?
- Does the lock on each window work?
- Have you added pins or clips to your windows for additional security?
- Do you have dowels or broom sticks in the track of windows and sliding glass doors?
- Do you have security company labels or signs displayed prominently?
- Do you have an alarm system? Is the system monitored?
- Do you have a dog that barks when strangers approach the home?
- Are emergency numbers posted near the telephones?
- Do you have smoke detectors near all sleeping areas?
- Do you check the batteries monthly and change them annually?
- Do you have two carbon monoxide detectors?
- Do you have an escape ladder for upper floors?
- Do you have fire extinguishers near exits and in the kitchen?
- Do you have an emergency escape plan and is the family familiar with it?
- Are any outlets or switches warm to the touch?
- Are kitchen ventilation systems working properly?
- Is the dryer ventilated to the outside and is the exhaust free of lint?
- Is the furnace cleaned and serviced yearly?
- Is the space around the hot water heater clear of combustible materials?
- Are all electrical and phone cords out of the flow of traffic?
- Are rugs and runners slip resistant?
- Is your step-stool sturdy and in good condition?
- Are stairs clear of objects that could cause a fall?
- Are all entrance ways, exits, halls and walks well lighted?
- Do bath tubs and showers have non-skid strips or suction mats in them?
- Do you keep drugs and medicines out of reach and sight of small children?
- Are interior doors designed so small children cannot lock themselves in rooms?
- Are pool and play areas fenced to keep small children in and uninvited guests out?
- Are firearms kept out of reach and sight of children?
- Is a well-stocked first aid kit available for emergencies?
- Is there one member of your family trained in first aid, CPR and the Heimlich maneuver?
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Is this an issue you have in your neighborhood!?
It can be unsightly and upsetting when a home in a neighborhood isn't being maintained like the others. It might be an overgrown yard, a fence in need of repair, paint peeling on the home or even a car parked in front of the home that hasn't moved in weeks.
I believe most people want to be good neighbors and may be willing to correct the issue once it is brought to their attention. In some cases, they may not agree with the same urgency and it might be necessary to seek other remedies.
The most expedient solution may be to contact the responsible person and describe your perception of the problem. An owner-occupant may be sympathetic to the neighbors and more than willing to correct the issue.
However, if you suspect that it is a rental property, check with the county tax records to identify the owner. They may be unaware of the situation and would actually welcome the "heads-up" to protect their investment.
The next step might be to notify the homeowner's association if there is one. The covenants or bylaws will specify how properties must be maintained and the association can enforce them.
The final step would be to notify the city for a possible code violation. Most cities have a separate code and neighborhood services division and some cities have 311 for non-emergency assistance.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
IF ONLY!!!
We've probably all said or at least thought "if I knew then, what I know now, I would have done things differently." We should have stayed in school longer. We should have listened to our parents. We should have bought Apple stock in 2002 for $8.50 or gold in 2000 for $300.
Years from now, if we look back at 2012, it may be clear that this was the best buyer's market ever. The prices are down nationwide 35-40% from four years ago, mortgage rates have never been this low and rents are rising. Few homes have been built in recent years to keep up with a growing population. There may never be a better time to buy homes than now.
The housing affordability index which is considered to be good at 100 has increased to over 200 for several months. Shrinking inventories and rising prices in some markets are causing the index to fall for the first time in years.
This 'buying" opportunity applies equally to acquiring a home to live in or to rent as income property. It is estimated that about one-third of the homes purchased last year were done by investors. It is reasonalbe because the positive cash flows far exceed most other investment alternatives.
The question we're all faced with this year is whether we'll be saying we seized or missed an opportunity of a lifetime.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Home Inventory - Get Educated
Personal computers have been around long enough that everyone has experienced or knows someone who has lost their data due to a hard drive crash, accident or burglary. If they had a backup, the loss was inconvenient but not critical.
Do you have a backup for your personal belongings? Not that you need duplicates of all the items but do you have a journal listing of all the items with a description and their approximate values? That record becomes the backup that supports the claim for your insurance.
If a building sustains a total loss, the insurance company will usually pay the face amount of the policy. When it comes to personal property which might be 40% to 50% of the insured value of the dwelling, the insurance company is going to expect an accounting with receipts or at least, a relatively recent inventory.
The better your inventory, the less likely you'll have difficulty with the claim. Almost everyone has a digital camera that can take stills and probably even videos. The combination of the images as well as a written description will help you replace the belongings and serve as proof to the insurance company.
Once you've made the inventory, store it off site for safe keeping. Online storage in the "cloud" might be the best place to insure you'll always know where it is. Contact me for a free Home Inventory form; it's my way of helping you be a better homeowner.
Monday, April 2, 2012
REPAIRS! Troubleshoot first!
Have you ever had a service company to your home to repair something and find out that it really wasn't "broken"? It probably conjured up ambivalent feelings of joy that it wasn't something serious and frustration that you had to pay a service call for something so simple.
Before you call the repairman next time, keep these things in mind to see if it is something simple:
- Disposer not working - check to see if the reset button has been thrown. It is usually on the bottom of the disposer. If the disposer is making a humming sound, the blades may be stuck. While the disposer is turned off, use a wooden broom handle as a lever to gently rotate the blades. Remove the broom handle and turn on the disposer to see if it works properly.
- Air conditioner not working - check to see if a breaker has thrown on your electric panel. You might need to flip the breaker completely off and flip it back on.
- Electrical outlets not working - Electrical plugs in bathrooms or outside, especially on a porch or patio, are many times connected to a ground fault interrupter. The GFI will be a wall outlet and it may be located in the garage. Locate the outlet and reset the button that may have tripped.
- Clogged drain - a simple way to correct a slow or clogged drain is to use the water pressure from a garden hose. You'll need a helper to turn on the water full-blast once you have safely placed the hose in the drain and are holding a hand-towel around the hose to direct the water to the drain. Be prepared to tell your helper to turn off the water when needed.
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Monday, March 26, 2012
Enjoy your home!
Occasionally, you hear about an important recall on a product you have and you take care of it immediately. However, if you were to miss such a notice, it could put you or your family in jeopardy.
You can subscribe to the U.S. government's service to notify the public when recalls are made on vehicles, tires and child restraints through the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on their site called SaferCar.gov.
You'll receive a notification by email when there is a new recall based on the type you selected. You can change your selections or unsubscribe at any time by going back to their website in the "Manage Your Notifications" section.
We're committed to helping you be a better homeowner by providing information on items that can protect your home's value, reduce expenses, improve maintenance and increase the enjoyment of your home.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Housing Affordability Index
The Housing Affordability Index was developed over thirty years ago to help consumers determine when it is a good time to buy a home. It's considered advantageous to the buyer when the index is over 100 because a median income family can qualify for a median price home.
The two major components that contribute to the index are home prices and mortgage interest rates which are lower than they've been in the last five years which account for the dramatic rise in the index since 2006.
The Housing Affordability Index is another indication that this is a good time to buy a home for people who have good credit, a down payment and want a home. It may be the best time we'll see in our lifetimes.
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Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Become your kid's mortgage lender
Become your kid's mortgage lender
This is an interesting article!!! Thought you guys would enjoy reading it!!! Hey it's better than the banks return in CDs, saving and money market accounts!!!
Monday, September 20, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Existing-Home Sales Slow in June but Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Washington, July 22, 2010
With the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credits, existing-home sales slowed in June but remained at relatively elevated levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May, but are 9.8 percent higher than the 4.89 million-unit pace in June 2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said.
“Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.74 percent in June from 4.89 percent in May; the rate was 5.42 percent in June 2009.
The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $183,700 in June, which is 1.0 percent higher than a year ago. Distressed homes were at 32 percent of sales last month, compared with 31 percent in May; it was also 31 percent in June 2009.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said softer home sales expected this summer don’t tell the whole story. “Despite these market swings, total annual home sales are rising above 2009 and we’re looking for overall gains again this year as well as in 2011,” she said. “Conditions have become more balanced in much of the country, which is good for both buyers and sellers. However, consumers find it even more challenging to navigate the transaction process, especially for distressed properties, which only underscores the value Realtors® bring to buyers and sellers in this market.”
A parallel NAR practitioner survey3 shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in June, down from 46 percent in May. Investors accounted for 13 percent of sales in June, little changed from 14 percent in May; the remaining purchases were by repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 24 percent in June compared with 25 percent in May.
Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.5 percent to 3.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.9-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from an 8.3-month supply in May.
“The supply of homes on the market is higher than we’d like to see. But home prices are still holding their ground because prices had already overcorrected in many local markets,” Yun said. Raw unsold inventory remains 12.7 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
Single-family home sales fell 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million in June from a level of 4.98 million in May, but are 8.5 percent above the 4.33 million pace in June 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $184,200 in June, up 1.3 percent from a year ago.
Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 10 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in June in comparison with June 2009. In addition, existing single-family home sales rose in 12 of the 19 areas from a year ago while two were unchanged.
Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in June from 680,000 in May, but are 20.5 percent higher than the 556,000-unit pace in June 2009. The median existing condo price5 was $180,100 in June, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 7.9 percent to an annual level of 960,000 in June and are 17.1 percent above June 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $244,300, down 1.2 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 7.5 percent in June to a pace of 1.23 million but are 11.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $155,900, down 0.1 percent from June 2009.
In the South, existing-home sales fell 6.5 percent to an annual level of 2.01 million in June but are 11.0 percent above June 2009. The median price in the South was $163,600, unchanged from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West dropped 9.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.17 million in June but are 0.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the West was $221,800, up 1.5 percent from June 2009.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
With the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credits, existing-home sales slowed in June but remained at relatively elevated levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May, but are 9.8 percent higher than the 4.89 million-unit pace in June 2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said.
“Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.74 percent in June from 4.89 percent in May; the rate was 5.42 percent in June 2009.
The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $183,700 in June, which is 1.0 percent higher than a year ago. Distressed homes were at 32 percent of sales last month, compared with 31 percent in May; it was also 31 percent in June 2009.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said softer home sales expected this summer don’t tell the whole story. “Despite these market swings, total annual home sales are rising above 2009 and we’re looking for overall gains again this year as well as in 2011,” she said. “Conditions have become more balanced in much of the country, which is good for both buyers and sellers. However, consumers find it even more challenging to navigate the transaction process, especially for distressed properties, which only underscores the value Realtors® bring to buyers and sellers in this market.”
A parallel NAR practitioner survey3 shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in June, down from 46 percent in May. Investors accounted for 13 percent of sales in June, little changed from 14 percent in May; the remaining purchases were by repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 24 percent in June compared with 25 percent in May.
Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.5 percent to 3.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.9-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from an 8.3-month supply in May.
“The supply of homes on the market is higher than we’d like to see. But home prices are still holding their ground because prices had already overcorrected in many local markets,” Yun said. Raw unsold inventory remains 12.7 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
Single-family home sales fell 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million in June from a level of 4.98 million in May, but are 8.5 percent above the 4.33 million pace in June 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $184,200 in June, up 1.3 percent from a year ago.
Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 10 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in June in comparison with June 2009. In addition, existing single-family home sales rose in 12 of the 19 areas from a year ago while two were unchanged.
Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in June from 680,000 in May, but are 20.5 percent higher than the 556,000-unit pace in June 2009. The median existing condo price5 was $180,100 in June, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 7.9 percent to an annual level of 960,000 in June and are 17.1 percent above June 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $244,300, down 1.2 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 7.5 percent in June to a pace of 1.23 million but are 11.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $155,900, down 0.1 percent from June 2009.
In the South, existing-home sales fell 6.5 percent to an annual level of 2.01 million in June but are 11.0 percent above June 2009. The median price in the South was $163,600, unchanged from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West dropped 9.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.17 million in June but are 0.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the West was $221,800, up 1.5 percent from June 2009.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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The Preserve
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Good news. Home sales rose for the second straight monthy
Economists' Commentary: Existing Home Sales in May
June 23, 2009
By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist
Good news. Home sales rose for the second straight month and inventory got trimmed. Home prices still show much lower values from a year ago, but part of that is due to more transactions on the lower-priced homes and fewer on the high-end. The rise in the national median home price should not be viewed as a genuine price gain yet since most if not all of the rise could be due to seasonal factors of more families with children entering the market this time of the year and they tend to buy non-distressed homes at higher values.
The detailed data is here. In short on the data, existing home sales rose 2.4 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units from a 4.66 million unit pace in April (which is a downward revision from 4.68 reported earlier). Compared to the same month one year ago, existing home sales were down by 3.6 percent.
Regionally, home sales rose by the strongest amount in the Midwest with a 9.0 percent rise. In the Midwest, sales were higher in Omaha, Minneapolis, and Cleveland and Michigan markets. Chicago and Milwaukee are showing signs of sales stabilization. More fully, from April to May:
In the Midwest, existing home sales increased 9.0 percent
In the Northeast, sales increased 3.9 percent
In the South, sales were unchanged
In the West, sales fell 0.9 percent
The monthly data can be a bit bouncy, so a better trend can be assessed by comparing to one year ago. The sales trend continues to show the West region as the only region with higher sales. Still some of the steam is coming off in the West. Sales are down in the mountain states and in the Pacific Northwest. Sales are positive in many California markets as well as Arizona and Nevada. But some of the cities that had shown spectacular gains of a 50 to 100 percent rise in year-over-year sales are showing only modestly higher or have turned negative. Sacramento, Oakland, and San Fernando Valley are examples. A similar pattern of leveling off in sales now after sharp gains is observed in Sarasota, Florida and the Northern Virginia outer suburbs.
At the same time, many markets are beginning to move towards sales stabilization (meaning the year-over-year changes are becoming less negative). Few markets appear to enter a takeoff stage with much stronger sales now than a year ago. Maryland suburbs, Orlando, Miami, and Phoenix are examples.
The national median existing home price in May was $173,000, which is a decline of 16.8 percent from one year ago. (Prior month price data was revised down to $166,600 from $170,200 with the price having fallen by 17.2 percent in April from one year ago.) Prices were lower in all four regions. From one-year ago, prices were lower by 12.5 percent in the Northeast, 10.4 percent in the Midwest, 9.9 percent in the South and 30.6 percent in the West. The plunging values in the West reflect much greater sales in the deeply-discounted foreclosed properties.
The median price has now fallen by 25 percent from the peak in 2006, translating into a loss of equity of $5.5 trillion in homeowner housing equity. The aggregate housing valuation of $17 trillion would now match that in 2003 – six years ago. We need to be mindful of many local market variations. Some California markets would have witnessed price declines in excess of 50 percent, while many Texans to this day may be experiencing home price gains without having suffered any downfall.
Though losses have been significant for many homeowners, lower prices are good news for potential buyers. The housing affordability is at the highest since 1970. The recent affordability level of 174 is 62 percent higher compared to at the height of the boom. Translation: a middle-income family now has more than sufficient income (62 percent additional income) to buy a middle-priced home at current mortgage rates and stay well within family budget. Of course, not everyone will be buying a middle-priced home. So people who buy a higher priced home should have appropriately higher income and people with lower income should look for a below median priced home for financial safety.
Inventories at the end of May declined 3.5 percent to 3.80 million homes available for sale. It will now take 9.6 months to exhaust the inventory at the current sales pace. Past data showed inventory in May from April could go in either direction, so the decline in this May can be interpreted as not a seasonal factor but some reduction as more buyers pick-off inventory and fewer new listings coming on line. From one year ago, inventory is lower by 15.3 percent. Still, overall, the inventory levels are high and favor the buyer over the seller.
Regarding the single-family versus condo market, the condo market is beginning to show some rebound after being hard hit, though broadly speaking the single-family market has held up relatively better. Condo sales increased 6.1 percent while single family home sales advanced 1.9 percent and over the month. Month-to-month data tends to be a bit volatile. From one-year ago, there is a much sharper difference with single-family falling only 3.0 percent, while condo sales fell 8.9 percent. Single family home price were lower by 16.1 percent while condo prices declined 21.9 percent. The months supply of inventory for single-family homes was trimmed to 9.0 months from 9.5 months in the prior month and from 11 months nearly a year ago. For condos, there were 15.0 months supply of inventory, down from 15.4 months in the prior month and from the peak 16.4 months in November of last year.
The increase in home sales is needed in order to stabilize housing values and get the economy going. So the latest data is certainly welcome news. However, the increase in closing sales, which existing home sales measure, was lower than as implied by pending home sale contracts, which had risen 5.6 percent in April.
The rise in mortgage rates raises concerns on future home sales because the housing sector is so sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. Small adjustments are generally of less concern. In fact, there is a short term boost to sales in the initial phase of rising rates as some buyers want to lock-in rates before they go up even higher.
The job losses will also shrink the pool of eligible homebuyers. Since the start of the recession in January 2008, there are 6 million fewer people with jobs.
On top of the rising rates and loss in jobs, there is a new event that has been developing in the past month that is raising alarm bells. Appraisals!
We are getting bombarded with stories of last minute fallout in contracts because appraisals are coming in with unrealistically low values. There was a ready buyer and a ready seller to make a deal at a mutually acceptable price. More properties are being appraised by non-local specialists, being based on non-comparables (normal homes being compared as a distressed home), and consumers are paying a much higher fee. Because of lower appraisals, it opens up a new round of negotiations which may delay closing or simply lead to a cancellation. Lower appraisals also force the buyers to come up with extra cash to make up the difference between price and appraisal, which some buyers are unwilling to do, and again lead to a fallout. This issue has suddenly snowballed. We are now in the process of conducting research to assess the extent of the problem related to the appraisals and the subsequent fall out.
Any delay in the housing market recovery will, unfortunately, mean an additional rise in foreclosures and a further delay in economic recovery. NAR is talking with all relevant policymakers to address this issue to end the confusion and chaos related to appraisals.
The first-time buyers will be the key to help drive up sales. Not only is it a great opportunity for those with stable jobs and income to buy a starter home, but first-time buyers will also help unleash the next buyers. The existing homeowners can sell more easily, which then permits buying another home. First-time home buyers accounted for 29 percent of all buyers based on a survey of REALTORS about their recent clients. It is a decline from the 40 to 50 percent range in recent prior months. With the homebuyer tax credit geared for first-time buyers, it is somewhat surprising to see a downward trend in this figure. But the latest lower figure may reflect more triggering up the scale with trade-up or trade-down buyers now able to unload to buy the next home. Or it could be seasonal factor. More repeat homebuyers with children buy a home at this time of year as they want to do it between the school years. And they represent repeat buyers. Also these buyers may be less inclined to look at foreclosed homes.
The number of distressed sales declined in May to 33 percent of all sales compared to nearly half in the early months of this year. This decline could be simply be one-month statistical noise or it could be a seasonal factor for families with children buying normal homes and not distressed homes.
A separate data release by the Federal Housing Finance Agency today showed home prices stabilizing. From March to April, home values of those that had Fannie and Freddie loans declined by 0.1 percent – or in common person’s language: no change. The price measurement is a repeat price index showing it is proper to compare from one month to the next. From one year ago, prices were down 6.8 percent, which matches the lowest decline in 8 months. The data clearly implies stable home values in more established neighborhoods with little subprime loans.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
Comments? Questions? E-mail NAR Research.
NAR members, learn how you can add this commentary to your Web site, blog, or newsletter. Read more >
June 23, 2009
By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist
Good news. Home sales rose for the second straight month and inventory got trimmed. Home prices still show much lower values from a year ago, but part of that is due to more transactions on the lower-priced homes and fewer on the high-end. The rise in the national median home price should not be viewed as a genuine price gain yet since most if not all of the rise could be due to seasonal factors of more families with children entering the market this time of the year and they tend to buy non-distressed homes at higher values.
The detailed data is here. In short on the data, existing home sales rose 2.4 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units from a 4.66 million unit pace in April (which is a downward revision from 4.68 reported earlier). Compared to the same month one year ago, existing home sales were down by 3.6 percent.
Regionally, home sales rose by the strongest amount in the Midwest with a 9.0 percent rise. In the Midwest, sales were higher in Omaha, Minneapolis, and Cleveland and Michigan markets. Chicago and Milwaukee are showing signs of sales stabilization. More fully, from April to May:
In the Midwest, existing home sales increased 9.0 percent
In the Northeast, sales increased 3.9 percent
In the South, sales were unchanged
In the West, sales fell 0.9 percent
The monthly data can be a bit bouncy, so a better trend can be assessed by comparing to one year ago. The sales trend continues to show the West region as the only region with higher sales. Still some of the steam is coming off in the West. Sales are down in the mountain states and in the Pacific Northwest. Sales are positive in many California markets as well as Arizona and Nevada. But some of the cities that had shown spectacular gains of a 50 to 100 percent rise in year-over-year sales are showing only modestly higher or have turned negative. Sacramento, Oakland, and San Fernando Valley are examples. A similar pattern of leveling off in sales now after sharp gains is observed in Sarasota, Florida and the Northern Virginia outer suburbs.
At the same time, many markets are beginning to move towards sales stabilization (meaning the year-over-year changes are becoming less negative). Few markets appear to enter a takeoff stage with much stronger sales now than a year ago. Maryland suburbs, Orlando, Miami, and Phoenix are examples.
The national median existing home price in May was $173,000, which is a decline of 16.8 percent from one year ago. (Prior month price data was revised down to $166,600 from $170,200 with the price having fallen by 17.2 percent in April from one year ago.) Prices were lower in all four regions. From one-year ago, prices were lower by 12.5 percent in the Northeast, 10.4 percent in the Midwest, 9.9 percent in the South and 30.6 percent in the West. The plunging values in the West reflect much greater sales in the deeply-discounted foreclosed properties.
The median price has now fallen by 25 percent from the peak in 2006, translating into a loss of equity of $5.5 trillion in homeowner housing equity. The aggregate housing valuation of $17 trillion would now match that in 2003 – six years ago. We need to be mindful of many local market variations. Some California markets would have witnessed price declines in excess of 50 percent, while many Texans to this day may be experiencing home price gains without having suffered any downfall.
Though losses have been significant for many homeowners, lower prices are good news for potential buyers. The housing affordability is at the highest since 1970. The recent affordability level of 174 is 62 percent higher compared to at the height of the boom. Translation: a middle-income family now has more than sufficient income (62 percent additional income) to buy a middle-priced home at current mortgage rates and stay well within family budget. Of course, not everyone will be buying a middle-priced home. So people who buy a higher priced home should have appropriately higher income and people with lower income should look for a below median priced home for financial safety.
Inventories at the end of May declined 3.5 percent to 3.80 million homes available for sale. It will now take 9.6 months to exhaust the inventory at the current sales pace. Past data showed inventory in May from April could go in either direction, so the decline in this May can be interpreted as not a seasonal factor but some reduction as more buyers pick-off inventory and fewer new listings coming on line. From one year ago, inventory is lower by 15.3 percent. Still, overall, the inventory levels are high and favor the buyer over the seller.
Regarding the single-family versus condo market, the condo market is beginning to show some rebound after being hard hit, though broadly speaking the single-family market has held up relatively better. Condo sales increased 6.1 percent while single family home sales advanced 1.9 percent and over the month. Month-to-month data tends to be a bit volatile. From one-year ago, there is a much sharper difference with single-family falling only 3.0 percent, while condo sales fell 8.9 percent. Single family home price were lower by 16.1 percent while condo prices declined 21.9 percent. The months supply of inventory for single-family homes was trimmed to 9.0 months from 9.5 months in the prior month and from 11 months nearly a year ago. For condos, there were 15.0 months supply of inventory, down from 15.4 months in the prior month and from the peak 16.4 months in November of last year.
The increase in home sales is needed in order to stabilize housing values and get the economy going. So the latest data is certainly welcome news. However, the increase in closing sales, which existing home sales measure, was lower than as implied by pending home sale contracts, which had risen 5.6 percent in April.
The rise in mortgage rates raises concerns on future home sales because the housing sector is so sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. Small adjustments are generally of less concern. In fact, there is a short term boost to sales in the initial phase of rising rates as some buyers want to lock-in rates before they go up even higher.
The job losses will also shrink the pool of eligible homebuyers. Since the start of the recession in January 2008, there are 6 million fewer people with jobs.
On top of the rising rates and loss in jobs, there is a new event that has been developing in the past month that is raising alarm bells. Appraisals!
We are getting bombarded with stories of last minute fallout in contracts because appraisals are coming in with unrealistically low values. There was a ready buyer and a ready seller to make a deal at a mutually acceptable price. More properties are being appraised by non-local specialists, being based on non-comparables (normal homes being compared as a distressed home), and consumers are paying a much higher fee. Because of lower appraisals, it opens up a new round of negotiations which may delay closing or simply lead to a cancellation. Lower appraisals also force the buyers to come up with extra cash to make up the difference between price and appraisal, which some buyers are unwilling to do, and again lead to a fallout. This issue has suddenly snowballed. We are now in the process of conducting research to assess the extent of the problem related to the appraisals and the subsequent fall out.
Any delay in the housing market recovery will, unfortunately, mean an additional rise in foreclosures and a further delay in economic recovery. NAR is talking with all relevant policymakers to address this issue to end the confusion and chaos related to appraisals.
The first-time buyers will be the key to help drive up sales. Not only is it a great opportunity for those with stable jobs and income to buy a starter home, but first-time buyers will also help unleash the next buyers. The existing homeowners can sell more easily, which then permits buying another home. First-time home buyers accounted for 29 percent of all buyers based on a survey of REALTORS about their recent clients. It is a decline from the 40 to 50 percent range in recent prior months. With the homebuyer tax credit geared for first-time buyers, it is somewhat surprising to see a downward trend in this figure. But the latest lower figure may reflect more triggering up the scale with trade-up or trade-down buyers now able to unload to buy the next home. Or it could be seasonal factor. More repeat homebuyers with children buy a home at this time of year as they want to do it between the school years. And they represent repeat buyers. Also these buyers may be less inclined to look at foreclosed homes.
The number of distressed sales declined in May to 33 percent of all sales compared to nearly half in the early months of this year. This decline could be simply be one-month statistical noise or it could be a seasonal factor for families with children buying normal homes and not distressed homes.
A separate data release by the Federal Housing Finance Agency today showed home prices stabilizing. From March to April, home values of those that had Fannie and Freddie loans declined by 0.1 percent – or in common person’s language: no change. The price measurement is a repeat price index showing it is proper to compare from one month to the next. From one year ago, prices were down 6.8 percent, which matches the lowest decline in 8 months. The data clearly implies stable home values in more established neighborhoods with little subprime loans.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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