Inaccurate Zillow 'Zestimates' a source of conflict over home prices

Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff, shown in his downtown Seattle office, says Zestimates are "a good starting point" but that nationwide Zestimates have a "median error rate" of about 8%. (Ellen M. Banner / TNS)

By KENNETH R. HARNEY

• Real Estate
 
• Business

Home shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to realty agents as gauges of market value

Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff says that nationwide Zestimates have a “median error rate” of about 8%

When "CBS This Morning" co-host Norah O'Donnell asked the chief executive of Zillow recently about the accuracy of the website's automated property value estimates — known as Zestimates — she touched on one of the most sensitive perception gaps in American real estate.

Millennials are finally entering home-buying market

Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. Along with active listings of properties for sale, it also provides information on houses that are not on the market. You can enter the address or general location in a database of millions of homes and probably pull up key information — square footage, lot size, number of bedrooms and baths, photos, taxes — plus a Zestimate.

Shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to realty agents — and to one another — as gauges of market value. If a house for sale has a Zestimate of $350,000, a buyer might challenge the sellers' list price of $425,000. Or a seller might demand to know from potential listing brokers why they say a property should sell for just $595,000 when Zillow has it at $685,000.

HOT PROPERTY: Live vicariously on our celebrity homes report>>

lRelated 

REAL ESTATE

FHA loan versus 'conventional' mortgage: Which is better?

SEE ALL RELATED

8

Disparities like these are daily occurrences and, in the words of one realty agent who posted on the industry blog ActiveRain, they are "the bane of my existence." Consumers often take Zestimates "as gospel," said Tim Freund, an agent with Dilbeck Real Estate in Westlake Village. If either the buyer or the seller won't budge off Zillow's estimated value, he told me, "that will kill a deal."

Back to the question posed by O'Donnell: Are Zestimates accurate? And if they're off the mark, how far off? Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff answered that they're "a good starting point" but that nationwide Zestimates have a "median error rate" of about 8%.

Homeowners underestimate their property values 1.6%, research says

Whoa. That sounds high. On a $500,000 house, that would be a $40,000 disparity — a lot of money on the table — and could create problems. But here's something Rascoff was not asked about: Localized median error rates on Zestimates sometimes far exceed the national median, which raises the odds that sellers and buyers will have conflicts over pricing. Though it's not prominently featured on the website, at the bottom of Zillow's home page in small type is the word "Zestimates." This section provides helpful background information along with valuation error rates by state and county — some of which are stunners.

cComments

• @the_PB But to be fair how can a computer algorithm take these variables into account...unless someone (person) is feeding it the relevant data.
  NUTBUCKET
  AT 12:25 PM FEBRUARY 09, 2015

ADD A COMMENTSEE ALL COMMENTS

107

For example, in New York County — Manhattan — the median valuation error rate is 19.9%. In Brooklyn, it's 12.9%. In Somerset County, Md., the rate is an astounding 42%. In some rural counties in California, error rates range as high as 26%. In San Francisco it's 11.6%. With a median home value of $1,000,800 in San Francisco, according to Zillow estimates as of December, a median error rate at this level translates into a price disparity of $116,093.

Some real estate agents have done their own studies of accuracy levels of Zillow in their local markets.

Last July, Robert Earl, an agent with Choice Homes Team in the Charlottesville, Va., area, examined selling prices and Zestimates of all 21 homes sold that month in the nearby community of Lake Monticello. On 17 sales Zillow overestimated values, including two houses that sold for 61% below the Zestimate.

In Carlsbad, Calif., Jeff Dowler, an agent with Solutions Real Estate, did a similar analysis on sales in two ZIP Codes. He found that Zestimates came in below the selling price 70% of the time, with disparities ranging as high as $70,000. In 25% of the sales, Zestimates were higher than the contract price. In 95% of the cases, he said, "Zestimates were wrong. That does not inspire a lot of confidence, at least not for me." In a second ZIP Code, Dowler found that 100% of Zestimates were inaccurate and that disparities were as large as $190,000.

So what do you do now that you've got the scoop on Zestimate accuracy? Most important, take Rascoff's advice: Look at them as no more than starting points in pricing discussions with the real authorities on local real estate values — experienced agents and appraisers. Zestimates are hardly gospel — often far from it.

kenharney@earthlink.net

Distributed by Washington Post Writers Group.

Auburn University invites community to witness planting of new oak trees on Valentine's Day

• Story
• Comments
• Image (2)

Print

Create a hardcopy of this page

Font Size:

Default font size

Larger font size

1

Previous Next

Contributed photo

One of the oaks to be planted.

On Valentine's Day, Feb. 14, Auburn University invites the Auburn Family to watch the new oaks be planted.

Posted: Monday, February 2, 2015 11:28 am | Updated: 11:43 am, Tue Feb 3, 2015.

Special to the Villager | 0 comments

Nearly four years to the day that Auburn University announced the lethal poisoning of the historic Auburn Oaks, two new live oaks will begin taking root in Samford Park at Toomer's Corner.

Landscapers are scheduled to begin planting the 35-foot-tall trees at 8 a.m. on Feb. 14. The university is inviting the public to attend the event, which should finish early in the afternoon. A viewing area will be set up, and streets will be closed for safety reasons.

"We are partnering with the City of Auburn to make this a special day," said Mike Clardy, director of university communications. "Downtown merchants will be open early and three of Auburn's athletic teams will be in action that day. We are hoping people will come to the Plains and make a weekend out of it."

Beginning around 7:30 a.m., crews will close College Street from Thach Avenue to Tichenor Avenue, and Magnolia Avenue from Wright Street to the Compass Bank parking lot entrance.  Roads are expected to remain closed until 2 p.m.

The new trees will arrive at Toomer's Corner via flatbed trailer between 7:30 and 8 a.m.

The planting of the oaks is the final step in Phase I of the Samford Park renovation, which included enlarging the plaza and improving the landscaping near the corner. The second phase, slated to begin after A-Day in April, will feature the planting of 30 15-foot-tall trees — grown from acorns collected from the original oaks — between Toomer's Corner and Samford Hall.

The university is asking fans not to roll the two new oak trees until fall 2016 as they establish roots and acclimate to their new environment.

For more information about the Auburn Oaks, visit www.auburn.edu/oaks<;http://www.auburn.edu/oaks>.

Mud Room Benches, Cabinets, Lockers and more!

How to Make Your Mudroom Shine

Architects and designers tell us how to set up one of the toughest rooms in the house

Mary Jo Bowling

Houzz Editorial Staff; writer, reader, serial remodeler.

Email

 

Comment54Like77Bookmark449PrintEmbed

A recent Houzz Call for your mudroom photos drew a lot of praise for this drop-it-all zone off the entryway — and some strong opinions. Perhaps the highest praise came from reader lake1114, who said, “The mudroom is one of the best house creations since indoor plumbing.” When we talked with Houzzers who have created great mudrooms, we found out more about the layout, setup and cost of this hardworking space. All of them emphasized one thing: A mudroom is as individual as the people who use it.

HAYNES & GARTHWAITE ARCHITECTS

Save

Email

Architects Byron Haynes and Andrew Garthwaite of Haynes & Garthwaite Architects say that mudrooms are essential in New England and other areas that have wet and/or cold weather. In fact, the home feature is so key, when the men launched their practice 18 years ago, “No mudroom is too small” was their private (and only half-joking) motto. “I believe one of our first projects was a mudroom off a garage,” says Garthwaite.

Nearly two decades and many mudrooms later, they still believe in the importance of the space. According to these New Hampshire architects, the front door on most New England homes is ceremonial. “Most people enter through the garage,” says Haynes. “But the key thing is that it has to be in a location that’s convenient.” And by “people,” he means guests too; that’s why the architects generally make the mudrooms fit the style of the house.

The configuration of the room depends on what their clients want. “We have clients who don’t like to see any clutter, and they want everything put away. For those people we give them closets and cabinets,” says Garthwaite.

HAYNES & GARTHWAITE ARCHITECTS

Save

Email

“But for some others, such as people with kids, it’s more important that everything be accessible and easy to find. Those are the people who do well with cubbies or hooks,” Garthwaite says.

When it comes to cubbies, the architects have found that a stack of niches — one for shoes on the floor, one for coats in the middle and one for less frequently used items on the top — works nicely.

A lot of mudrooms on Houzz are more than mudrooms — some incorporate laundries, message centers and even craft tables. When clients ask Garthwaite and Haynes for additional functions in the mudroom, it’s generally a powder room, a dog shower or a small countertop that can hold keys and mail.

Browse thousands of mudrooms and filter by style, size and budget

HAYNES & GARTHWAITE ARCHITECTS

Save

Email

In terms of surfaces, the architects think the key surface is the floor. They say that most of their projects have some variety of a slip-resistant natural stone, such as Vermont slate, but they have also used porcelain tiles and Marmoleum. “We think the best mudroom floor materials don’t absorb water, aren’t slippery and are easy to clean,” says Haynes.

Weedman Design Partners

Save

Email

Travis and Arielle Weedman, of Weedman Design Partners in Oregon, do all kinds of mudrooms, but in general their philosophyis “less is more.” The two remodel a lot of older homes, and they find that there’s not always room for a large mudroom lined with hooks and cabinets. “In my opinion, mudrooms that work well have just what you need on a daily basis,” says Travis. “There are other places in the house to store the rest.”

Case in point: The small but mighty drop zone seen here, which the Weedmans created in the entry of an older home. It holds the bare essentials: a bench for removing shoes, a mesh-front cabinet for hanging jackets and stowing backpacks (note: Each family member has one jacket space here, and the bottom of the unit is divided into two backpack cubbies), drawers under the bench for stowing shoes and a small drawer for keys.

Weedman Design Partners

Save

Email

“I personally don’t think every pair of shoes belongs in the mudroom,” says Travis. “That’s what the bedroom closet is for.” Following that line of thinking, the two adults and two kids in this household each stow just one pair of shoes here.

The key drawer is seen at right; the small cupboard below is for the dog’s leash and waste bags.

The Weedmans have designed mudrooms with painted cabinets and with natural wood finishes. “Natural wood wears well and does not chip, but wood painted with a semigloss paint should be easy to wipe down,” says Arielle. “A lot of it is simply personal preference.”

Individual styles also come into play for colors of walls and floors. “We have clients who don’t like to see dirt, so they choose darker colors,” she says. “However, we have others who want to see the dirt so they can clean it.”

Save

Email

Shelly Lindstrom, of Fluidesign Studio, has designed a number of mudrooms that were built by Barak Steenlage, of Anchor Builders, including this one. In her design mind, the room should be laid out carefully with an eye to operations, just like a kitchen. “There’s a high level of traffic in these rooms, so you want to make sure there’s good flow,” she says. “It should be easy to enter and exit, and you should be able to do so without causing everyone to shuffle around. You don’t want people to have to move so others can walk in or out.”

Other layout considerations include sight lines and seating. “In general you want to make sure you can’t see directly into the mudroom from other parts of the house. Not everyone wants to see a row of drying boots,” Lindstrom says. “And you will always need a place to sit to remove boots and shoes.”

Fluidesign Studio

Save

Email

Lindstrom echoes the other designers when she says that flooring needs to be durable and not slippery. For other finishes she favors beadboard paneling painted in a semigloss finish. “I like the lighter, brighter feeling of painted wood, and I’ve found it much easier to clean and maintain than drywall,” she says. The designer says she usually reserves darker wood for the top of bench seating, because that area takes the brunt of the wear.

Many of her clients with kids choose open hooks for coat and backpack storage. Lindstrom favors hooks with two prongs — one for coats, one for backpacks.

Costs: You can create a mudroom inexpensively with freestanding lockers and cubbies, or you can invest in custom built-ins. The consensus among the architects and designers interviewed is that setting up a built-in mudroom can range from a few thousand dollars to $10,000, depending on the amount of cabinetry and built-ins.

Haynes and Garthwaite estimate that a budget between $5,000 and $10,000 would be needed.

Arielle Weedman says there’s quite a range in costs of mudrooms, and notes that many of them are folded into kitchen renovations. She would budget roughly $3,000 to $10,000 for a mudroom project, and says a mudroom similar to the one shown previously from her company would cost roughly $7,500.

“In Minnesota you could spend between $1,000 and $8,000 to do a mudroom in a renovation,” Lindstrom says. “For a mudroom addition, you would expect to spend $15,000 and up.”

A comment from fern6951 sums it up nicely: “Each person/family has different lifestyles, so each mudroom needs to be designed differently. Some people need and want a simple, bare-bones, workhorse of a room; others prefer something more refined. There are no right or wrong ways to set up a mudroom as long as it works for the family living there.”

More:
See how to create a makeshift mudroom
These real-life mudrooms really clean up
Browse thousands of mudroom photos on Houzz